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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830



As Lieutenant Dan would say, I'm living off the government tit. I'm a federal government employee impacted by the shutdown, and I'm not suffering at all, despite what the news would have you believe.

I'm basically getting a nice, long, lazy vacation at minimal cost. It's true that I'll soon be missing my second paycheck, but there's no harm at all because I'm fiscally responsible and stash savings for rainy days. But it's not really a rainy day! Think about it. I'll be getting reimbursed anyway when this is over, and plus, any money that I don't have can just go to my credit card.

So let's break it down. If the average federal salary is $85,000, that's probably a biweekly pay of $1,700 that I'd get to keep after all tax/retirement/healthcare deductions (or something around that, I earn a different amount so I don't know what the precise bi-weekly amount would be for the average). If I miss three pay checks, I likely only miss one or two credit card payments that charge an annual 16.5% APR. So at worst, let's say I miss two credit card payments and get charged. That's $140.25 in credit card interest ($1,700 x 3 paychecks x 16.5% APR / 6 months) that I can expect to pay, at the worst!

That's a $140.25 out-of-pocket cost for a 6 week vacation, a true bargain!

So am I suffering? Hell no. If I was desperate for $140.25, I'd just knock on doors around the neighborhood and ask to rake yards, how hard can that be?

Thank you, democrats, for shutting down the government and giving me a nice, nice vacation.





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bd2999


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 16,883


As this is pretty much what one of the press people just said.

Your assumptions are pretty bad in general too. As it assumes way too much about you being responsible and everybody not like you is irresponsible.

A quick google search led me to a site indicating that Federal employees make between 31k and 98k a year. And depending on the area they are working the cost of living may make it effectively much less.

For that matter, polls of federal workers have you in a minority. It is good to know that you are happy but it hardly seems like you are in the majority on that one.




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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    Your assumptions are pretty bad in general too. As it assumes way too much about you being responsible and everybody not like you is irresponsible.


There are no assumptions about:

1) federal workers will be reimbursed
2) federal workers can simply use a credit card and pay the minor interest fees
3) 6 weeks (if it comes to this) is a lot of time to compensate for any lost wages in minor credit card interest fees

Nobody is hurting.


    Quote:
    A quick google search led me to a site indicating that Federal employees make between 31k and 98k a year. And depending on the area they are working the cost of living may make it effectively much less.


Cost of living has nothing to do with it. You're maintaining your living with your salary, and if you were successful pre-shutdown with 31k, you'll still be successful by simply using your credit card until you're reimbursed. I know that blows your mind.


    Quote:
    For that matter, polls of federal workers have you in a minority. It is good to know that you are happy but it hardly seems like you are in the majority on that one.


They're all liars. Federal employees, myself included, are overpaid anyway.





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bd2999


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 16,883


You really have no idea how to understand any view other than your own do you?

It is just everybody else's fault if they cannot deal with it.

You are also making major assumptions about people having credit cards, ignoring the most American workers in general live pay check to pay check and that some workers have been forced to do their job for weeks without pay.

I guess that is cool though. Or how there are problems with TSA or various other current tasks of value that the government does do. And those will increase the longer this goes.

I know you dislike immigrants, but this is pretty low. Most of your fellows do not agree with you. I know that to you, that means they are wrong.

And even if your guy gets his way, you still do not get the WALL. You get a few hundred miles at best. Hardly the rhetorical win.




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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    You really have no idea how to understand any view other than your own do you?

    It is just everybody else's fault if they cannot deal with it.


I can understand other viewpoints, provided they make sense. Where I go wrong is when they don't and my logical brain cannot compute the garbled noise.


    Quote:
    You are also making major assumptions about people having credit cards,


A major assumption?

Using the Census Bureau estimate of 249.5 million adults in the U.S., that means there are about 189 million Americans adults with at least one credit card.

https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/ownership-statistics.php

I'd be quite surprised if many federal employees, with their generous pay and benefits for their skillsets, do not have credit cards.


    Quote:
    ignoring the most American workers in general live pay check to pay check and that some workers have been forced to do their job for weeks without pay.


Such hypocrisy.  Now who's manufacturing a crisis?  You make it sound like we're living in the Great Depression, when this is the strongest economy we've ever had!  You blame Trump for exaggerating circumstances, and here you are, doing it yourself.


    Quote:
    I guess that is cool though. Or how there are problems with TSA or various other current tasks of value that the government does do. And those will increase the longer this goes.

    I know you dislike immigrants, but this is pretty low. Most of your fellows do not agree with you. I know that to you, that means they are wrong.


They are not my fellows. They are my fellow Americans, the same as all others who I expect to be fiscally responsible. And they're not hurting. You laughably act as if they're out of work with no recovery, like this is the early 20th century. But the fact is, we live is such a great country, that they get an opportunity to do no work and get reimbursed. That's mind blowing and quite a nice safety net/protection.


    Quote:
    And even if your guy gets his way, you still do not get the WALL. You get a few hundred miles at best. Hardly the rhetorical win.


That's why it's called an annual spending package. We just do this again and again, every year. $5.7 billion for 2019, another $5 billion in 2020, etc. It's easier to swallow than asking for $28 billion up front.





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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830



https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-could-hurt-federal-workers-credit-scores/

“Missing just one payment on a credit card can knock up to 100 points off a consumer's credit score, and it can take several years to recover, according to experts.”

This is such bs. I miss my monthly credit card payment probably twice a year and never saw this happen.





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Kev Agent of The Shadow


Location: Fair Oaks CA aka Rivendell
Member Since: Tue Jun 01, 2004
Posts: 2,702


I'm with Treasury and am enjoying the break.

Every time I see another Federal Employee go on the news and moan they didn't get their paycheck (some of them started before the bi-weekly paychecks were even due BTW) I shout at the TV, "Shut up and don't draw any attention to us, we've got a good thing going."

They will (retroactively) pay me to have slept in, gone to the gym in daylight hours, get chores done around the house, and read books. As far as I'm concerned, keep me shut down through the end of February I could use the break.

Oh BTW It appears we are also accruing leave while on furlough. So for every two weeks we're furloughed I will "earn" a day of vacation.

People are hurting but really they're Government Contractors and not Federal Employees. Honestly I don't have much sympathy for them as I'm against privatization of the Government jobs anyway. Oddly it's the Republicans who have always advocated privatization and suddenly they've turned their backs on the Contractors. Strange times indeed.




KATS latest read: The Sinister Shadow by "Kenneth Robeson"
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Silver Surfer


Member Since: Mon Jun 25, 2018
Posts: 421



    Quote:
    You make it sound like we're living in the Great Depression, when this is the strongest economy we've ever had!


No it isn't, you liar. The strongest, ever? Like as in since the founding of America?

The strongest and most durable economy in the history was in the 50s and 60, to the point where the early 60s recession had little effect on over all productivity or wages, and could be managed into a relatively mind status.

And the most "booming economy" was the 90s, due in large part to the information.

The fact is that most of the jobs added in both the current administration and current are lower income jobs. Yes, wages are ticking up, and that is good, but the pay opportunities are not enough to restore the middle class to its former glory.

While there have been upticks in manufacturing payroll under Trump, it slowed down last year. In fact most production slowed down last year.

That doesn't inherently mean doom and gloom, but it shows a certain lack of sustainability.

The problem is everyone gets bogged down in certain numbers, like unemployment, which is low, but not necessarily the types of jobs.

The underemployment rate has been rather high for several years.

Now, personally, I believe this has to do with the old revolution getting old, and a smaller need for what once had many. That a government solution form anybody is unlikely, and we just have to wait for the next economic revelation.

Either way, strong or not, is not the strongest ever.


And by the by, I don't think raking leaves will be as helpful say you think. For starters, you'll have to wait about ten months.

And as someone who used to do manual labor (and not raking, building fences, painting, that jive), the number of people who want to pay to have things that small done, are few and far between. AND they will pay you very little, most likely (there is a reason why it is mostly kids who do it).

And since I guess you are in your 40s, your body will more than likely keep you from getting the amount you would need to cover much.





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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    No it isn't, you liar. The strongest, ever? Like as in since the founding of America?



    Quote:
    The strongest and most durable economy in the history was in the 50s and 60, to the point where the early 60s recession had little effect on over all productivity or wages, and could be managed into a relatively mind status.


Nope. It’s now.

http://en.mercopress.com/2019/01/05/us-economy-ever-so-strong-312.000-jobs-added-in-december

But even if we disagree, why argue such a small point when it’s universal that the economy is doing great? Even Donald Trump’s public enemy #1 can’t deny this.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/news/economy/us-economy-boom-history/index.html


    Quote:
    And the most "booming economy" was the 90s, due in large part to the information.


90’s were good. Today is better.


    Quote:
    The fact is that most of the jobs added in both the current administration and current are lower income jobs. Yes, wages are ticking up, and that is good, but the pay opportunities are not enough to restore the middle class to its former glory.


A silly claim, given that the definition of the middle class is relative.

https://money.cnn.com/infographic/economy/what-is-middle-class-anyway/index.html


    Quote:
    While there have been upticks in manufacturing payroll under Trump, it slowed down last year. In fact most production slowed down last year.

    That doesn't inherently mean doom and gloom, but it shows a certain lack of sustainability.

    The problem is everyone gets bogged down in certain numbers, like unemployment, which is low, but not necessarily the types of jobs.

    The underemployment rate has been rather high for several years.

    Now, personally, I believe this has to do with the old revolution getting old, and a smaller need for what once had many. That a government solution form anybody is unlikely, and we just have to wait for the next economic revelation.

    Either way, strong or not, is not the strongest ever.
.

Eh, shut up all ready. It’s undoubtedly very strong, there’s no “either way” about it, you liar.


    Quote:

    And by the by, I don't think raking leaves will be as helpful say you think. For starters, you'll have to wait about ten months.


You haven’t been to my neighborhood then. But it’s interesting that you miss the point. There are numerous ways to earn a paltry income to pay for small credit card interest. And if you cant, just file for state unemployment benefits. I’m surprised you weren’t aware of that, though—democrats always know where the free handouts are.


    Quote:
    And as someone who used to do manual labor (and not raking, building fences, painting, that jive), the number of people who want to pay to have things that small done, are few and far between. AND they will pay you very little, most likely (there is a reason why it is mostly kids who do it).


Maybe because your work quality was so poor, did you ever think of that? I wouldn’t hire you either.


    Quote:
    And since I guess you are in your 40s, your body will more than likely keep you from getting the amount you would need to cover much.


First, you shouldn’t be speculating about anybody’s age. It’s offensive and I’m offended.

Second, it might surprise you that not everyone lays on the couch all day, afraid to go to the gym like the typical male democrat.






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bd2999


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 16,883


you go on a tangent about the economy after basically making a rant about people using credit cards and if they did not save it is on them.

1. About half of the 800,000 are having to work without pay. That is not right, so your lovely vacation line is flawed. They are not.

2. Mortgage, rent and so on cannot be paid by credit card, unless something major has changed. And not paying can impact credit scores and other things.

3. Not everybody has a credit card.

4. Government contractors and those working with the government will not get back pay.

5. Most people with savings have savings to help them in times of crisis, not an unplanned "vacation". If you are for personal responsibility than this is the opposite. It is government forcing a situation to punish the responsible and the irresponsible. It will take time to build up any of that. Pending what other measures are taken to potentially hurt the workers.


You lack any empathy about people. It is striking.




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bd2999


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 16,883


I mean to each their own, but even if you just consider that about half of the people are being forced to work without pay. One would think you would be a little more considerate.

I would hardly considerate a vacation if it was draining my savings account for no reason. It is good that you and HT are having a grand old time but most federal workers, based on polling, are not agreeing with you too much.

The longer it goes, the worse it will be.




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Kev Agent of The Shadow


Location: Fair Oaks CA aka Rivendell
Member Since: Tue Jun 01, 2004
Posts: 2,702



    Quote:
    I mean to each their own, but even if you just consider that about half of the people are being forced to work without pay. One would think you would be a little more considerate.


Yeah those folks that have to work (FBI, TSA, and ironically Immigration) w/o pay are getting screwed over. There is currently a case brought by one of the Employee Unions before the Courts which questions if this is legal. Personally I'm thinking the Court will side with them as it is very much akin to indentured servitude. What will Congress do then? They can't very well send all the law enforcers home and await the chaos that will follow.


    Quote:
    I would hardly considerate a vacation if it was draining my savings account for no reason. It is good that you and HT are having a grand old time but most federal workers, based on polling, are not agreeing with you too much.


I make no claim to speak for anyone other than myself. I'm in year 26 of what will likely be a 30 year career. If I can't go a couple of months without a paycheck at this point, I have made some serious mistakes when it comes to planning my retirement.


    Quote:
    The longer it goes, the worse it will be.


When the second two-week paycheck doesn't go out, I think that is really going to ratchet up the pressure on all parties concerned.






KATS latest read: The Sinister Shadow by "Kenneth Robeson"
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Butthead2


Member Since: Tue Oct 24, 2017
Posts: 988


The one with the complete lack of empathy here is Nancy Pelosi. Her refusal to negotiate a deal with Trump and give him his funding is what is dragging this on. That witch only wants to break The President and I hope alot of hate starts going toward her. The longer this drags on the more I will blame The Democrats.


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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    you go on a tangent about the economy after basically making a rant about people using credit cards and if they did not save it is on them.

    1. About half of the 800,000 are having to work without pay. That is not right, so your lovely vacation line is flawed. They are not.


They are getting a free vacation, I'm a federal worker and, unlike you, I have a direct line of vision. They miss one paycheck and they go to a food bank, haha. That’s poor fiscal management.


    Quote:
    2. Mortgage, rent and so on cannot be paid by credit card, unless something major has changed. And not paying can impact credit scores and other things.


Mortgages, rent and so on can be paid with a credit card.

https://www.creditcardinsider.com/blog/pay-rent-with-credit-cards/


    Quote:
    3. Not everybody has a credit card.


The vast majority do.


    Quote:
    4. Government contractors and those working with the government will not get back pay.


For them, I feel kind of bad. Sort of. Their hourly rates are exorbitant and they rip off the government, horribly.


    Quote:
    5. Most people with savings have savings to help them in times of crisis, not an unplanned "vacation". If you are for personal responsibility than this is the opposite. It is government forcing a situation to punish the responsible and the irresponsible. It will take time to build up any of that. Pending what other measures are taken to potentially hurt the workers.


For federal workers, I don't feel bad at all. For contractors, I feel somewhat bad.


    Quote:

    You lack any empathy about people. It is striking.


I have empathy. I feel kind of bad for federal contractors. But everything I said, I labeled as pertaining to federal government employees, not contractors. The news makes it sound like federal employees are all losing their homes and have it so bad. They don't. They have a cushy job, great benefits + retirement, and the proof will be this: none of them will seek employment in the private sector when the shutdown is over. Govvies wouldn’t last.






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Would be Watcher


Location: Canada
Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 12,381



Why do you blame more one side? Did the other side show a willingness to make more compromises?



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MysteryMan


Member Since: Fri Apr 28, 2017
Posts: 3,192



    Quote:

    Why do you blame more one side? Did the other side show a willingness to make more compromises?


I am one of those contractors...but it wont hit me for another month or so since we were paid through middle of February. So no hit here other than I am not getting free time off...YET.

Yeah I think we need to blame both sides really.

Now I will call Pelosi out for on national TV stating she wouldn't even read the expert reports Trump sent out showing why that much funding was asked for and where it would go. She didn't trust the source...that's...a complete lack of willingness to compromise.

I don't expect Trump to be much better though...my guess he will withdraw funds from FEMA in the end.

So in short I agree...BOTH sides are the issue here...Trump....well hes always an issue and the new dems who want to have a pissing match with him.



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zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:
    The one with the complete lack of empathy here is Nancy Pelosi. Her refusal to negotiate a deal with Trump and give him his funding is what is dragging this on.


That's like saying when someone is blackmailed, if they would just give in, the situation would be resolved. Shutting down the government and building a wall are not related issues whatsoever. Trump and the Republicans are the ones making them related. Congress already passed a bipartisan spending bill that would keep the government opened. Trump refused to sign unless Congress adds money for a wall and now Mitch McConnell is refusing to bring any bill up in the Senate until Trump agrees. If a Democratic president shut down the government unless Congress gave $5 billion to Planned Parenthood, would you say Republicans should meet them half way and give Planned Parenthood $2 or $3 billion? What's to keep this from being a tactic used by any president for any issue regardless of how stupid it is? In any case, Trump and Republicans are being stupid because they are suffering for the shutdown more than Democrats. Numerous polls show that a little over 50% of Americans blame Trump and the GOP while around 30% blame Democrats. Trump's already low approval rating has been trending downward for weeks now.





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
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zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531


All good points, bd2999. Job site Indeed showed a 17% increase in federal workers searching for work elsewhere. No one wants to join the government workforce right now because they would not be paid so the government is losing out on potential talent.

Beyond all that, $200 million in pay is being withheld PER DAY, which is a lot of money that's not going back into the economy. For example, lots of restaurants that would be frequented by working government employees are suffering dramatically. The White House itself presented statistics that the shutdown lowers economic growth by 0.13 percent each week it continues. If Trump keeps this up, he'll reside over a recession of his own making. It might lead to a recession anyway because it undermines businesses' and investors' confidence in Trump's ability to maintain economic stability. Trump's trade war has already helped wreck the stock market for 2018.

And what is all this for? After calling this a crisis and threatening emergency intervention, Trump has walked that back, basically admitting he was bluffing, which was obvious from the start. There is no crisis. It's all political maneuvering so Trump can somewhat fulfill one fifth of his biggest campaign promise, which won't be fulfilling it anyway since Mexico is not paying for the wall.





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    All good points, bd2999. Job site Indeed showed a 17% increase in federal workers searching for work elsewhere.


That doesn't mean anything. I do that at work all the time when I'm bored, and I'm definitely not looking for work elsewhere. Why should I? Look

- I'm overpaid
- I get tons of vacation and federal holidays
- I get a small pension on top of my Thrift Savings Plan
- I have job security that you can't find in any other galaxy

Regarding that last point, I've literally worked on teams where people did no work but supervisors were too afraid to stir waves and make trouble to do something about it.


    Quote:
    No one wants to join the government workforce right now because they would not be paid so the government is losing out on potential talent.


Nobody with talent ever joined the government, anyway.


    Quote:
    Beyond all that, $200 million in pay is being withheld PER DAY, which is a lot of money that's not going back into the economy.


$200 million per day is not that big a deal on a national scale. The federal budget is $4 trillion so $200 million per day is less than 2%.


    Quote:
    For example, lots of restaurants that would be frequented by working government employees are suffering dramatically. The White House itself presented statistics that the shutdown lowers economic growth by 0.13 percent each week it continues.


0.13%? Am I the only one who doesn't think that sounds like a lot??


    Quote:
    If Trump keeps this up, he'll reside over a recession of his own making. It might lead to a recession anyway because it undermines businesses' and investors' confidence in Trump's ability to maintain economic stability. Trump's trade war has already helped wreck the stock market for 2018.


Highly, highly unlikely. I'd say that if historical patterns hold true, we're on the up and up, and it's all thanks to Trump.







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HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    That's like saying when someone is blackmailed, if they would just give in, the situation would be resolved. Shutting down the government and building a wall are not related issues whatsoever. Trump and the Republicans are the ones making them related. Congress already passed a bipartisan spending bill that would keep the government opened. Trump refused to sign unless Congress adds money for a wall and now Mitch McConnell is refusing to bring any bill up in the Senate until Trump agrees. If a Democratic president shut down the government unless Congress gave $5 billion to Planned Parenthood, would you say Republicans should meet them half way and give Planned Parenthood $2 or $3 billion? What's to keep this from being a tactic used by any president for any issue regardless of how stupid it is?


What's stupid is your lack of awareness that the democrats would do the very thing you're suggesting is stupid and hostage taking. And that yes, in 2015, republicans DID make concessions to avoid a shutdown over Planned Parenthood.

Politico: How Planned Parenthood could shut down the government. A showdown over defunding the group places the federal government in the cross hairs of a partisan shutdown fight this fall.

https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/government-shut-down-planned-parenthood-120787

NY Times: Asked at a news conference last week if he could guarantee there would be no shutdown over Planned Parenthood, Mr. Boehner replied: “Listen, the goal here is not to shut down the government. The goal is to stop these horrific practices of organizations selling baby parts.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/16/us/with-possible-shutdown-nearing-obama-looks-to-take-budget-fight-to-gop.html

New York Times: No Shutdown Expected on Planned Parenthood (Nov. 30, 2015)

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/us/politics/congress-budget-deadline-planned-parenthood.html


    Quote:
    In any case, Trump and Republicans are being stupid because they are suffering for the shutdown more than Democrats. Numerous polls show that a little over 50% of Americans blame Trump and the GOP while around 30% blame Democrats. Trump's already low approval rating has been trending downward for weeks now.


Remember when the polling all pointed to a Hillary landslide? And anyway, we're two years from the next election, so this doesn't matter that much. #MAGA2020







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Butthead2


Member Since: Tue Oct 24, 2017
Posts: 988


I see no blackmailing here at all. And to answer your question I would say yes to the Republicans meeting halfway if a Democrat shut down the government. The problem with people like Nancy Pelosi is she is more in favor of open borders then a border wall and border security and I am so glad Trump and The Republicans will not budge until they get some funding for additional walls and more security. I would guess that a majority of the 50% of Americans who blame Trump are Liberals and I could care less what Liberals say or think. This has become a battle between Trump and Pelosi and I am routing for Trump. The two of them need to negotiate a deal. Period. I support the wall or any portion they can build. I am glad Trump denied Pelosi a military flight overseas and said she should take a commercial flight. That witch dont deserve anything.


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zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:


      Quote:
      All good points, bd2999. Job site Indeed showed a 17% increase in federal workers searching for work elsewhere.



    Quote:
    That doesn't mean anything. I do that at work all the time when I'm bored, and I'm definitely not looking for work elsewhere.


Obviously you don't understand statistics since you're comparing what you do normally to a significant increase in job searches by others. That comparison is completely irrelevant.


    Quote:
    Nobody with talent ever joined the government, anyway.


Yes, you seem to be a pointed example.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      Beyond all that, $200 million in pay is being withheld PER DAY, which is a lot of money that's not going back into the economy.



    Quote:
    $200 million per day is not that big a deal on a national scale. The federal budget is $4 trillion so $200 million per day is less than 2%.


The examples of your poor math skills continue. It's actually much less than 2%, but that doesn't change the fact that in a month, that $200 million has become $6 billion and regardless of that number's relationship to the entire federal budget, that's a significant amount of money to businesses in neighborhoods frequented by government workers.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      For example, lots of restaurants that would be frequented by working government employees are suffering dramatically. The White House itself presented statistics that the shutdown lowers economic growth by 0.13 percent each week it continues.



    Quote:
    0.13%? Am I the only one who doesn't think that sounds like a lot??


See your lack of math skills. Last year's first quarter showed 2.2% economic growth. 17 weeks of 0.13% contraction would completely wipe that out. We're starting our 5th week now with no signs of the shutdown ending now so we're 30% of the way there.






THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:


      Quote:
      That's like saying when someone is blackmailed, if they would just give in, the situation would be resolved. Shutting down the government and building a wall are not related issues whatsoever. Trump and the Republicans are the ones making them related. Congress already passed a bipartisan spending bill that would keep the government opened. Trump refused to sign unless Congress adds money for a wall and now Mitch McConnell is refusing to bring any bill up in the Senate until Trump agrees. If a Democratic president shut down the government unless Congress gave $5 billion to Planned Parenthood, would you say Republicans should meet them half way and give Planned Parenthood $2 or $3 billion? What's to keep this from being a tactic used by any president for any issue regardless of how stupid it is?



    Quote:
    What's stupid is your lack of awareness that the democrats would do the very thing you're suggesting is stupid and hostage taking. And that yes, in 2015, republicans DID make concessions to avoid a shutdown over Planned Parenthood.


What's stupid is in how you're totally wrong on this. The GOP was trying to shut down the government to defund Planned Parenthood. It was not the Democrats threatening to shut it down in order to fund Planned Parenthood. 

    Quote:

      Quote:
      In any case, Trump and Republicans are being stupid because they are suffering for the shutdown more than Democrats. Numerous polls show that a little over 50% of Americans blame Trump and the GOP while around 30% blame Democrats. Trump's already low approval rating has been trending downward for weeks now.



    Quote:
    Remember when the polling all pointed to a Hillary landslide? And anyway, we're two years from the next election, so this doesn't matter that much. #MAGA2020


Ah, the lack of statistical understanding again. You cite an instance where polling was wrong and so conclude all polling is wrong when the majority of the time, polling is right. Anyway, Hillary didn't have a 20 point lead on Trump. The Dems have a 20 point lead on Trump as to whom is being blamed for the shutdown. In all honesty, it should be much bigger given that Trump took ownership of the shutdown on camera, a move at the time you thought was genius. Now in polling, approval among Trump's most loyal supporters, white males without college degrees, has dropped from 54% to 45% in the past month's time. 60% of Americans oppose the wall.





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    Obviously you don't understand statistics since you're comparing what you do normally to a significant increase in job searches by others. That comparison is completely irrelevant.


And obviously, you look at statistics and make all kinds of farcical interpretations. I understand human nature and know how govvies think because I'm one of them. There are very, very few departures except in cases of retirement. It's like the Shawshank Redemption, we're institutionalized and the outside world scares us to death.


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      Quote:
      Nobody with talent ever joined the government, anyway.



    Quote:
    Yes, you seem to be a pointed example.


And what does that say about you when I routinely beat up your arguments?


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      Quote:

        Quote:
        Beyond all that, $200 million in pay is being withheld PER DAY, which is a lot of money that's not going back into the economy.

      Quote:

        Quote:
        $200 million per day is not that big a deal on a national scale. The federal budget is $4 trillion so $200 million per day is less than 2%.



    Quote:
    The examples of your poor math skills continue. It's actually much less than 2%, but that doesn't change the fact that in a month, that $200 million has become $6 billion and regardless of that number's relationship to the entire federal budget, that's a significant amount of money to businesses in neighborhoods frequented by government workers.


Like here, for example. Why call someone's math skills stupid when you're so easily proven wrong?

(200,000,000 salary per day)/(4,000,000,000,000 federal budget / 261 working days in a year) = 1.31% of the federal budget.

So I proved it was small. But you somehow think it's much smaller which would only serve my point even more.

It must be hard on your ego to get corrected all the time.


    Quote:
    See your lack of math skills. Last year's first quarter showed 2.2% economic growth. 17 weeks of 0.13% contraction would completely wipe that out. We're starting our 5th week now with no signs of the shutdown ending now so we're 30% of the way there.


First, interpretation of data is not a math skill. Second, 0.13% is not a lot because the effects are not being felt by the vast majority of Americans, and more importantly, this:

Hassett did not provide additional details about the estimates, but added that diminished spending by furloughed employees will be made up once they receive back pay after the shutdown ends, alleviating some of the damage.

"What's going to happen is that I think they've been promised that they're going to get the back pay -- which doesn't really help them right now when they're trying to pay the bills -- but in the fullest of time, when they get the back pay, then that means that there will be a rebound in government spending," Hassett said. "And so what will happen is it'll be lower this quarter and higher next quarter, assuming that this thing gets worked out by the end of the quarter."

"In the fullest of time, this should not have a long-run effect on GDP growth," he said.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/16/politics/kevin-hassett-shutdown-economic-growth/index.html





Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 10
HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    What's stupid is in how you're totally wrong on this. The GOP was trying to shut down the government to defund Planned Parenthood. It was not the Democrats threatening to shut it down in order to fund Planned Parenthood. 


It's the same thing. In 2015, republicans had control of the House and responsibility to write the annual spending bill. It's no different than a person writing their own budget and deciding to not renew Netflix. So in 2015, democrats were willing to shut down the government to force renewal of Netflix (Planned Parenthood) that Congress didn't want funded.

I keep correcting you.


    Quote:
    Ah, the lack of statistical understanding again. You cite an instance where polling was wrong and so conclude all polling is wrong when the majority of the time, polling is right. Anyway, Hillary didn't have a 20 point lead on Trump. The Dems have a 20 point lead on Trump as to whom is being blamed for the shutdown. In all honesty, it should be much bigger given that Trump took ownership of the shutdown on camera, a move at the time you thought was genius. Now in polling, approval among Trump's most loyal supporters, white males without college degrees, has dropped from 54% to 45% in the past month's time. 60% of Americans oppose the wall.


Because I learned how fickle people and polling results are from the last election, and sadly, you still don't seem to get it. Democrats have no victories because they criticize but have no plan.






Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 10
zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:
    And obviously, you look at statistics and make all kinds of farcical interpretations. I understand human nature and know how govvies think because I'm one of them. There are very, very few departures except in cases of retirement. It's like the Shawshank Redemption, we're institutionalized and the outside world scares us to death.


You're overgeneralization of 800,000 people is a fail. The 17% increase in job searches is real and your denial of it is just your banging your head against reality.


    Quote:

      Quote:

        Quote:
        Nobody with talent ever joined the government, anyway.
      Yes, you seem to be a pointed example.
    And what does that say about you when I routinely beat up your arguments?


It says that your self-professed lack of talent includes deluding yourself about who's winning our debates.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      The examples of your poor math skills continue. It's actually much less than 2%, but that doesn't change the fact that in a month, that $200 million has become $6 billion and regardless of that number's relationship to the entire federal budget, that's a significant amount of money to businesses in neighborhoods frequented by government workers.
    Like here, for example. Why call someone's math skills stupid when you're so easily proven wrong? (200,000,000 salary per day)/(4,000,000,000,000 federal budget / 261 working days in a year) = 1.31% of the federal budget.


Uh, no. The full federal budget is not entirely comprised of people's salaries. Far from it. Even your 1.31% nonsense number is 35% less than your original calculation.


    Quote:
    So I proved it was small. But you somehow think it's much smaller which would only serve my point even more.


You're totally missing the point. Comparing the money lost to the total federal budget is meaningless because that's just some arbitrary number you picked to minimize what's at stake. Sure, if the entire $4 trillion federal budget was removed from the economy, that would be beyond catastrophic, but removing any significant percentage of that $4 trillion can also be catastrophic.


    Quote:
    It must be hard on your ego to get corrected all the time.


It might be if I were corrected, but I spend most of that time correcting you.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      See your lack of math skills. Last year's first quarter showed 2.2% economic growth. 17 weeks of 0.13% contraction would completely wipe that out. We're starting our 5th week now with no signs of the shutdown ending now so we're 30% of the way there.
    First, interpretation of data is not a math skill.


LOL! Yes it is. If you can't count, you can't interpret numerical data.


    Quote:
    Second, 0.13% is not a lot because the effects are not being felt by the vast majority of Americans, and more importantly, this:


Huh, only something that affects the vast majority of Americans matters. Who knew? Oh yeah, that's your arbitrary rule that is absolutely false. Anyway, tell that to the government contractors who get no back pay, the air traffic controllers suing the Trump administration, and restaurant owners getting two thirds fewer customers.


    Quote:
    Hassett did not provide additional details about the estimates, but added that diminished spending by furloughed employees will be made up once they receive back pay after the shutdown ends, alleviating some of the damage.


Yes, "some." But what you're missing is that timing matters. People who are putting everything on their credit cards now have to pay significant interest on that money. And beyond unpaid salaries, the furloughs lead to millions of man-hours of lost productivity. Air travel is now less safe, food is now less safe, federal courts are about to run out of money, national parks are being damaged due to lack of maintenance, federal research with a time element are being ruined, and small businesses are failing to get government loans.





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:


      Quote:
      What's stupid is in how you're totally wrong on this. The GOP was trying to shut down the government to defund Planned Parenthood. It was not the Democrats threatening to shut it down in order to fund Planned Parenthood. 



    Quote:
    It's the same thing. In 2015, republicans had control of the House and responsibility to write the annual spending bill. It's no different than a person writing their own budget and deciding to not renew Netflix. So in 2015, democrats were willing to shut down the government to force renewal of Netflix (Planned Parenthood) that Congress didn't want funded.



    Quote:
    I keep correcting you.


Nah, when you fundamentally get the facts wrong and then refuse to acknowledge it, you're the one who needs correcting. Did you even read your own links? The Democrats were not threatening a government shutdown to keep PP funding. Republicans were threatening a government shutdown in order to REMOVE PP funding. So your trying to make this analogous to my example of Democrats extorting Republicans over PP is just plain incorrect.





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    You're overgeneralization of 800,000 people is a fail. The 17% increase in job searches is real and your denial of it is just your banging your head against reality.


My point was not whether the job searches were real but rather how meaningful that fact was. I gave a rebuttal and you lost track of the reality of what I was arguing.


    Quote:
    It says that your self-professed lack of talent includes deluding yourself about who's winning our debates.


That hardly matters when our relationship is sort of like this:

Two backpackers are face to face with a bear, the first (you) says that neither of us can outrun it, so I just reply, "I don't have to be faster than the bear, just you."


    Quote:
    Uh, no. The full federal budget is not entirely comprised of people's salaries. Far from it.


Beating up on a strawman since you can't beat me? Once again, you lost track of what we were arguing. Previously, you seemed to understand that my calculation was the relationship between federal salaries and the entire federal budget. I never argued against what you now think I did.


    Quote:
    Even your 1.31% nonsense number is 35% less than your original calculation.




No, it's not. Here's what I said: The federal budget is $4 trillion so $200 million per day is less than 2%.


    Quote:
    You're totally missing the point. Comparing the money lost to the total federal budget is meaningless because that's just some arbitrary number you picked to minimize what's at stake. Sure, if the entire $4 trillion federal budget was removed from the economy, that would be beyond catastrophic, but removing any significant percentage of that $4 trillion can also be catastrophic.


And I proved it wasn't a significant percentage, so your own argument defeats you for me. Why do you keep hitting yourself?


    Quote:

      Quote:

        Quote:
        See your lack of math skills. Last year's first quarter showed 2.2% economic growth. 17 weeks of 0.13% contraction would completely wipe that out. We're starting our 5th week now with no signs of the shutdown ending now so we're 30% of the way there.
      First, interpretation of data is not a math skill.



    Quote:
    LOL! Yes it is. If you can't count, you can't interpret numerical data.


No, it's not. Math skills involve the ability to perform calculations, not interpret calculations someone else did for you. I hate bursting your bubble since your life just got more difficult.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      Hassett did not provide additional details about the estimates, but added that diminished spending by furloughed employees will be made up once they receive back pay after the shutdown ends, alleviating some of the damage.



    Quote:
    Yes, "some." But what you're missing is that timing matters. People who are putting everything on their credit cards now have to pay significant interest on that money. And beyond unpaid salaries, the furloughs lead to millions of man-hours of lost productivity. Air travel is now less safe, food is now less safe, federal courts are about to run out of money, national parks are being damaged due to lack of maintenance, federal research with a time element are being ruined, and small businesses are failing to get government loans.


But you were the one arguing that GDP was being catastrophically damaged, remember? I keep reminding you of what we were arguing.






Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 10
HammerTime


Member Since: Sun Jan 07, 2018
Posts: 3,830




    Quote:
    Nah, when you fundamentally get the facts wrong and then refuse to acknowledge it, you're the one who needs correcting. Did you even read your own links? The Democrats were not threatening a government shutdown to keep PP funding. Republicans were threatening a government shutdown in order to REMOVE PP funding. So your trying to make this analogous to my example of Democrats extorting Republicans over PP is just plain incorrect.


You cannot remove funding that's not there. Each year, a spending budget is made by putting funds into the various government programs. There's no "removing" like you stubbornly latch onto. I keep correcting you of these facts but you keep repeating your errors. I even gave you an easy Netflix analogy which you struggle with, still.

In 2015, democrats demanded funding for Planned Parenthood or else they were going to shut the government down.






Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 10
zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:


      Quote:
      Nah, when you fundamentally get the facts wrong and then refuse to acknowledge it, you're the one who needs correcting. Did you even read your own links? The Democrats were not threatening a government shutdown to keep PP funding. Republicans were threatening a government shutdown in order to REMOVE PP funding. So your trying to make this analogous to my example of Democrats extorting Republicans over PP is just plain incorrect.



    Quote:
    You cannot remove funding that's not there. Each year, a spending budget is made by putting funds into the various government programs. There's no "removing" like you stubbornly latch onto. I keep correcting you of these facts but you keep repeating your errors. I even gave you an easy Netflix analogy which you struggle with, still.



    Quote:
    In 2015, democrats demanded funding for Planned Parenthood or else they were going to shut the government down.


You're just engaging in silly semantics now. The government regularly helps fund Planned Parenthood. Republicans threatened to shutdown the government if this regular practice did not end. The Democrats did not threaten to shut down the government over this. You are wrong.




THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
zvelf


Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 11,531



    Quote:
    My point was not whether the job searches were real but rather how meaningful that fact was. I gave a rebuttal and you lost track of the reality of what I was arguing.


You replied that you do job searches regularly all the time and that somehow dismisses how others have increased their job searching, which is ridiculous conclusion from your own behavior.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      It says that your self-professed lack of talent includes deluding yourself about who's winning our debates.



    Quote:
    That hardly matters when our relationship is sort of like this:



    Quote:
    Two backpackers are face to face with a bear, the first (you) says that neither of us can outrun it, so I just reply, "I don't have to be faster than the bear, just you."


Except that the bear that is reality is already mauling your arguments and I'm standing 1,000 yards away watching, amused, through binoculars.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      Uh, no. The full federal budget is not entirely comprised of people's salaries. Far from it.



    Quote:
    Beating up on a strawman since you can't beat me? Once again, you lost track of what we were arguing. Previously, you seemed to understand that my calculation was the relationship between federal salaries and the entire federal budget. I never argued against what you now think I did.


I pointed out that your math was wrong. It is.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      You're totally missing the point. Comparing the money lost to the total federal budget is meaningless because that's just some arbitrary number you picked to minimize what's at stake. Sure, if the entire $4 trillion federal budget was removed from the economy, that would be beyond catastrophic, but removing any significant percentage of that $4 trillion can also be catastrophic.



    Quote:
    And I proved it wasn't a significant percentage, so your own argument defeats you for me. Why do you keep hitting yourself?


Let's use your own (incorrect) math. 1.3% a day. It's been 19 business days. That's 25%! That's a significant percentage.


    Quote:
    Math skills involve the ability to perform calculations, not interpret calculations someone else did for you. I hate bursting your bubble since your life just got more difficult.


Without math skills, you can't properly contextualize or understand the calculations, which underscores the very act of interpretation.


    Quote:

      Quote:
      Yes, "some." But what you're missing is that timing matters. People who are putting everything on their credit cards now have to pay significant interest on that money. And beyond unpaid salaries, the furloughs lead to millions of man-hours of lost productivity. Air travel is now less safe, food is now less safe, federal courts are about to run out of money, national parks are being damaged due to lack of maintenance, federal research with a time element are being ruined, and small businesses are failing to get government loans.
    But you were the one arguing that GDP was being catastrophically damaged, remember? I keep reminding you of what we were arguing.


You're reminding me of something I wasn't arguing. Nowhere did I state GDP would be "catastrophically damaged." What I stated is that Trump can end up with a recession of his own making if he keeps the government shut down. In any case, your "genius" Trump is getting most of the blame for the shutdown, which he after all took ownership for, and now his approval numbers are dropping even among Republicans. From conservative Bret Stehpens' column from today:

"the president’s support from his base is also beginning to tumble, according to the same poll. It’s down since last month by a net of 10 points among Republicans, a net of 13 points among white evangelicals, and a net of 18 points among suburban men. Even white men without college degrees — the very core of his base — are turning on him, with 50 percent approving of his performance and 35 percent disapproving, down from 56 to 34."





THE POWER OF EMPATHY IN THE MCU:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy1zKcddbNk
Posted with Mozilla 11.0 on Windows 7
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