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Subj: Re: Depression historian warns of a 1929 repeat.
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 11:01:39 am EST (Viewed 97 times)
Reply Subj: Re: Depression historian warns of a 1929 repeat.
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 at 09:42:20 am EST (Viewed 109 times)
Quote:The party in power will really be the one punished for thing. One does have to give some credit to the GOP and express frustration over the ignorance of people. Cut taxes and increase the deficit and debt. Demand cuts to pay for it and keep repeating. Particularly when Dems are in power.
Quote:Just keeps going down the same hole.
Quote:Even beyond the tax cuts, I'm worried about the deregulation and the drastic shift towards anti-evidence based 'solutions' to America's problems. It seems like Americans have given up on gritting their teeth and getting hard stuff done, and have opted for quick and easy patch jobs (which is what Trump sells). An ignorant electorate allows for the GOP to push their tax cuts.
I am actually more worried about the deregulation. Particularly environmental. It is staggering to me that the goal is just to deregulate and not approach it as what of these is working and more of an efficiency analysis.
Not sure if you saw the publicity stunt where Trump had all the regulations from like 1960 vs today in paper form. Aside from a pointless waste of paper this is a bad comparison. The EPA did not exist at that point and some critical environmental regulations did not exist yet. His goal to remove regulations back to that point is chilling.
Quote:I'm sure you're aware of the list of words now banned by the Trump admin pertaining to the CDC. It's outright lunacy.
It scares me quite a bit. I saw the director of the CDC said the words were not banned but it seemed to me that they were banned in terms of official releases.
Some of them in particularly make zero sense. The CDC should be saying science based and evidence based as much as possible. The replacement term for thoughts is stupid. It is important to take culture into effect with implementation of evidence, but it has no barring on a thing being true or based on evidence.
Quote:The tax cut, at least at this point, as a whole, and the lies being told to sell it make no sense either. Given high employment at the moment I am not sure where they are thinking all of the jobs are going to come from. If anything, there are already an increasing number of jobs of varying kinds but there are not enough workers to fill them. This should force increase pressure to increase wages but it has not to any high level yet, but some indications it is starting.
Quote:Based on history, companies and the rich will sit on the money and/or give it to investors and buy back stock. If they increase wages, that sets a precedent that will be difficult to roll back. It's not in the nature of most companies to voluntarily and generously increase wages, even though happy workers are more productive workers.
Yes, but really there has been a disconnect since the 80's with productivity. At least with regards to increased productivity not leading to increased wages. As productivity has been going up but not wages.
You are very right with those. Another thing, ironically enough, is that what re-investment there is would also likely increase automation. Which removes jobs.
The whole idea of how this creates jobs is a bit of a farce anyway. In particular right now. With the economy doing fairly well at the moment. At the moment it is just going to blow holes in the deficit and make things worse during a recession in the future. As revenues will be lower when times are good or bad.
Not saying that debt or deficits are good or bad. I think conservatives make too much of it, as is politically convenient, but if anything when times are good and the economy is humming there should be more revenue at play. Not less. If anything they should have made it a goal to have this stuff be revenue neutral or positive. At least if they cared about deficits.
Quote:Minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, should be like $23.
Quote:Paul Ryan made some comment about American's needing to have more babies to keep things moving like they are, but another way that the GOP ignores that is much more useful for the now is immigration. If you need more people to do a given job or set of jobs than the economy really does not care where those people come from in the first place.
Quote:A very good case could be made by the GOP that skill-based immigration needs to be stepped up (while not closing the door on refugees). However, anti-immigration groups have a real lobbying presence within the Trump admin, and an open ear with Trump.
Indeed, but the economic case is strong. At least in many regards.
Quote:Families just can't make people like they used to, mostly for economic reasons. Just an anecdotal example, my brother and his wife work three jobs between the two of them, and struggle to take care of a single child. One of those three jobs JUST BARELY pays for child care. This is a middle class family. They couldn't afford another child if they wanted one. That's what's suppressing family growth. The Middle Class used to be sustained easily by a one-job income, rather than just scraping by with three.
I think this highlights the minimum wage example you pointed out above. As one will see many examples of somebody making so much twenty years ago and doing fine. Ignoring that things cost more now, many young people have loads of student loan debt to try and be competitive for the jobs their parents had with fewer qualifications and the increase in rents and the line to live somewhere.
There are many costs that make it very hard. I mean people can have kids and not be able to support them correctly. It is strange though that there is pressure to have more kids when people are trying to be responsible and ensure they have the means to care for their family.
Seems that is what the GOP should be happy with. Developed countries tend to have lower birth rates in general. At best they usually break even.
Quote:Regarding immigration, in Canada, every second doctor is a first or second generation Indian (from India, not indigenous Canadians). We largely recognize the need to repopulate via immigration. The older work force is dying off. I understand that Canada is a more sparsely populated country than America (30 million versus 300 million), but the problem is going to bite just the same when the baby boomer generation goes into retirement (basically now). I'm not a financial or economic guru by any stretch, but it seems the strain on social security combined with a sparse workforce is going cause 'bigly' problems.
It is already biting in varying degrees. As an aside the baby boomer thing is causing the big problem with Social Security short falls, but many of those same baby boomers rather blame people taking money from the fund who should not be. Rather than address that systematic problem that could be addressed in a few ways.
Not sure why but that generation in particular is very much I got mine. I know that may sound like generational warfare or whatever, but the mindset seems to be more widespread than would be expected.
It is a major problem in many fields. Medicine, particularly in expertise loss, or whatever else. Even lower skilled agriculture jobs. Everybody needs to eat but most of the ones that do that work are immigrants. Not citizens.
Quote:The GOP happily ignores that in their zeal to attack foreigners.
Quote:It's going to bite them in the end. There are not enough angry white conservatives left to win elections. The youth vote are not only more liberal, but are more tolerant of immigration and welcoming of diversity. The poison that the GOP peddle in is only going to motivate them to turn out the vote. They never should have burned that Republican Autopsy from 2012. It was their path to relevancy.
It is not good, but the problem is that it is not just them that have to suffer the consequences of these choices. Undoing the damage and atmosphere is not done overnight.
For that matter the economics of climate change is something being left behind by many of the same people. Mitigation saves much more money but the track we are on will be to pay for consequences. The party of not leaving debt as a problem for our children is fine leaving them debt and a messed up world.
Look Raist bunnies...
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