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Post By
Sumidor

Member Since: Sat Feb 25, 2017
In Reply To
zvelf

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Subj: Re: US out of the Iran nuclear deal
Posted: Sun May 13, 2018 at 03:57:34 pm CDT (Viewed 743 times)
Reply Subj: Re: US out of the Iran nuclear deal
Posted: Fri May 11, 2018 at 09:25:55 am CDT (Viewed 834 times)



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      1 - There seems to be credible evidence that Iran has been allowed to self inspect in Parchin, which is absolutely ridiculous.



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    No, this is White House spin:



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    https://www.factcheck.org/2015/08/huckabees-spin-on-iran/


It's not white house spin when it's reported by Reuters and stated by Iran.

From Reuters, "Iranian nuclear experts have taken environmental samples from the military base at Parchin without United Nations inspectors being present, the spokesman for Iran's atomic energy agency was quoted as saying on Monday."

According to Behruz Kamalvandi of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, "Iranian experts took samples from specific locations in Parchin facilities this week without IAEA inspectors being present. They followed regulations and standards and the samples were given to IAEA's experts"

Also, according to the link you posted, "Huckabee was likely referring to a confidential side deal covering inspections at Parchin, a military site connected to nuclear weapon development. But the issue of inspections at that site is in dispute."

So there is at least one confidential side deal covering at least one military site. What good is an agreement for full access to testing when there is a side deal excluding specific military sites where we believe the Iran nuclear program existed? It's like telling the police "You can search for dead bodies anywhere you want, except for inside this closet".



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      2 - The whole deal was based on Iran being completely up front and honest about their nuclear program. It seems they were not, which violates conditions which were necessary for entering into the deal.



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    These were minor infractions and by all reports, Iran is complying now.


You can classify it as "minor" if you'd like, but they were infractions of the deal. Which means Trump’s withdrawal is not unilateral.


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      3 - Although Germany, the UK and France were against the US exiting the deal, those nations geographically closer to Iran are happy to see the deal ended. Bahrain, UAE, Israel, and Saudi Arabia for example. The leaders of those countries, who likely know Iran better than Emmanuel Macron, think the deal left Iran as a danger to the region. They praised Trump for ending what they considered a weak deal, and would prefer to see US sanctions restored.



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    You are aware that some Sunni and Shia countries have immense hatred toward each other and have been jostling for power in the region for decades, right? UAE and Saudi Arabia are two such Sunni countries, and while Bahrain has a Shia majority, it's been a monarchy run by Sunnis forever and they are directly threatened by Iran's Shias fomenting Bahrain's own Shias to rebel. Likewise, Israel feels highly threatened by Iran. Any deal that makes Iran closer to the world's greatest powers, all of whom were involved in the deal, these countries would hate.


But it's not that these other nations hate Iran being close to western nations. It's that Iran is using its economic abilities from the release of the sanctions to fund terrorism and further cause unrest in the region. Iran has billions more money to cause problems.


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      4 - The fact that the sunset clause eventually allows Iran to continue their nuclear program has some concerned that it will lead to other nations in the region racing to start nuclear programs of their own to prepare for an eventual nuclear Iran.



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    Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons for a long time now. If it hasn't started a nuclear arms race before now, there's no reason to think it will do so now. Also, if Iran prefers the lack of sanctions to nuclear weapons now, there's little reason to believe they would continue the deal after the 10-15 years in order not to have the sanctions reimposed.


I don't believe sanctions automatically are re-imposed as part of the sunset clauses. As I've said, I haven't read the deal itself, but you're going to have to prove that's the case.

Rather than deal with a weak deal now that has allowed Iran infractions with no consequences, secret side deals providing areas where inspectors can't inspect, and hoping that Iran will become a good actor in 10-15 years, I prefer slapping sanctions on again and pressuring Iran into a better deal for the rest of the world. We disagree on preference here, not sure what else more there is to discuss.



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