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Subj: I wish I had your confidence about this.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 05:57:20 pm EDT (Viewed 206 times)
Reply Subj: Re: Not all of it.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 04:53:18 pm EDT (Viewed 181 times)
If the Ukrainians are unwilling to fight for their country despite the endless resources (armament and oil) the West is willing to provide, then perhaps there's not much we can do. But I'm assuming they're determined to continue fighting; and so long that this assumption is true, I don't support giving Putin/Russia an inch of Ukrainian soil. I don't believe in appeasing brutal dictators, and I don't believe his generals would follow orders if he ordered a nuclear attack.
LGDB: Well I assume that they're willing to fight, they certainly seem to be making a go of it. It's just not likely to win even with our military aid. It also seems in bad taste to believe that should the Ukrainians fail it was for lack of willingness on their part.
Second, what are you basing the belief that his generals would disobey him? Given the stakes that seems like a lot of confidence based on pretty scant evidence. Do you think our generals would disobey Biden or Trump if they ordered a nuclear strike and believed it was for the purposes of preempting an existential threat?
In WWII, the Germans/Japanese lost because they ran out of oil; and in battles of attrition, it all comes down to resources. So long as the Ukrainians are determined to win, and so long as we give them all the resources they need, I don't see how Russia can win. No appeasement!
LGDB: Well because while we're giving them plenty of weapons and armaments, there's plenty we're not. Zelensky's been quite clear about this. He's begging Western forces to set up a no fly zone or give him MiGs, which it looks like we're not going to do (thankfully). Moreover there's the issue of scale. Even if we give Zelenskyy ten times what we've already given him, we're not going to increase his arms to the level that they'd be competitive to arguably the second largest military on the planet. A military that by the way, has gotten quite a lot of practice.
Furthermore, I haven't seen anyone serious arguing that they believe the Ukrainians are likely to win this conflict or repel Russia through military means alone even with continual Western financial support. I'm open to the evidence here, I just haven't heard even vehement anti-Russian commentators argue this. Time will tell, but most people from what I can glean are hoping that the economic sanctions are going to extort Russia into thinking better of their aggression. My point is should that fail, it's not likely the Ukrainians can hold out indefinitely. It looks like many of their cities have been all but decimated already. (this is another one of those fog of war things.) And if Zelenskyy and most of his cabinet are captured, killed, or forced to flee, I think the game is basically over in terms of any conventional resistance. Sure the remaining Ukrainians are sure to organize some insurgency to various effects, but that still amounts to annexation. If the sanctions don't work, and the Ukrainians falter (as they likely will), what's the next step in your estimation?
---the late great Donald Blake