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Post By
Late Great Donald Blake 
Moderator

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 7,517
In Reply To
FreeKyle

Member Since: Thu Nov 11, 2021
Subj: Re: I wish I had your confidence about this.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 08:25:40 pm EDT (Viewed 155 times)
Reply Subj: Re: I wish I had your confidence about this.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 07:02:27 pm EDT (Viewed 172 times)

Previous Post


    Quote:
    LGDB: Well I assume that they're willing to fight, they certainly seem to be making a go of it. It's just not likely to win even with our military aid. It also seems in bad taste to believe that should the Ukrainians fail it was for lack of willingness on their part.

Did I suggest that? That if they fail it must be "because they were unwilling"? It's pretty bad taste for you to suggest this, why make things up?


    Quote:
    Second, what are you basing the belief that his generals would disobey him? Given the stakes that seems like a lot of confidence based on pretty scant evidence.
 

My hope that the people of Russia are not crazy like Putin because they haven't been isolated from international news and entertainment like North Korea which can definitely control the propaganda and ignorance. It's a chance I'm willing to take based on observations such as that Russian news woman who held up a sign during live broadcasting that the people of Russia were being lied to.


    Quote:
    Do you think our generals would disobey Biden or Trump if they ordered a nuclear strike and believed it was for the purposes of preempting an existential threat?


You see, this is where we disagree. You think Russian generals are stupid and would actually believe the propaganda that a nuclear strike is somehow preempting an existential threat when the threat (the West) is merely pumping resources into Ukraine and not invading Russia. How is it even possible for a general to be so stupid to believe such foolishness? It's not! They would have to be evil and reckless, and I don't think they're so stupid to cede their power and go suicidal when their power isn't even being threatened! Nobody is trying to remove their government or invade their land! They're clearly bluffing.


    Quote:
    LGDB: Well because while we're giving them plenty of weapons and armaments, there's plenty we're not. Zelensky's been quite clear about this. He's begging Western forces to set up a no fly zone or give him MiGs, which it looks like we're not going to do (thankfully). Moreover there's the issue of scale. Even if we give Zelenskyy ten times what we've already given him, we're not going to increase his arms to the level that they'd be competitive to arguably the second largest military on the planet. A military that by the way, has gotten quite a lot of practice.

Oh, come on. Russia, even if they're the second largest military, is like saying Michael Jordan needs to be afraid of the best player on a high school team. The gap between our capabilities and Russia is so far that the U.S. might as well be #1 - #20. Compare our military spending, aircraft, navy, land vehicles, and technology. We dwarf Russia in every facet. If the West doesn't fully supply Ukraine, then it's clearly a failure of Western leadership.


    Quote:
    Furthermore, I haven't seen anyone serious arguing that they believe the Ukrainians are likely to win this conflict or repel Russia through military means alone even with continual Western financial support. I'm open to the evidence here, I just haven't heard even vehement anti-Russian commentators argue this. Time will tell, but most people from what I can glean are hoping that the economic sanctions are going to extort Russia into thinking better of their aggression. My point is should that fail, it's not likely the Ukrainians can hold out indefinitely. It looks like many of their cities have been all but decimated already. (this is another one of those fog of war things.)  And if Zelenskyy and most of his cabinet are captured, killed, or forced to flee, I think the game is basically over in terms of any conventional resistance.  Sure the remaining Ukrainians are sure to organize some insurgency to various effects, but that still amounts to annexation.  If the sanctions don't work, and the Ukrainians falter (as they likely will), what's the next step in your estimation?


"President" Jocko Willink: The Ukraine Situation - YouTube

This guy says otherwise. I'll listen to this man before I listen to you or your like-minded progressive cohorts.

My estimation is that with unlimited resources provided by the West, Ukraine cannot falter. To do anything less is a failure of the West's leadership, not the "will of the Ukrainian people" as you tried to lay on me.


Did I suggest that? That if they fail it must be "because they were unwilling"? It's pretty bad taste for you to suggest this, why make things up?


LGDB: You seemed to suggest it, yes. I'll leave it to others whether this mischaracterizes your position.



My hope that the people of Russia are not crazy like Putin because they haven't been isolated from international news and entertainment like North Korea which can definitely control the propaganda and ignorance. It's a chance I'm willing to take based on observations such as that Russian news woman who held up a sign during live broadcasting that the people of Russia were being lied to.


LGDB: What do you mean it's a chance you're willing to take? I don't think either one of us is in on the decision making here. Regardless, what would make you think it would be reasonable to assume that high placed government or military officials who you can expect have expressed nothing but loyalty to Putin (and would likely be ideologically in agreement with him) would disobey him?




You see, this is where we disagree. You think Russian generals are stupid and would actually believe the propaganda that a nuclear strike is somehow preempting an existential threat when the threat (the West) is merely pumping resources into Ukraine and not invading Russia. How is it even possible for a general to be so stupid to believe such foolishness? It's not! They would have to be evil and reckless, and I don't think they're so stupid to cede their power and go suicidal when their power isn't even being threatened! Nobody is trying to remove their government or invade their land! They're clearly bluffing.


LGDB: Stupidity has nothing to do with it. It's whether or not they thought there was a credible threat to their power or way of life. And I didn't mean in the case of our financing the Ukrainian war effort. I meant should we begin down the road of direct military escalation. Like with for instance setting up a no fly zone in Ukraine. And do you have any articulatable reason to think they're bluffing? Again, this seems like a lot to stake on intuition.




Oh, come on. Russia, even if they're the second largest military, is like saying Michael Jordan needs to be afraid of the best player on a high school team. The gap between our capabilities and Russia is so far that the U.S. might as well be #1 - #20. Compare our military spending, aircraft, navy, land vehicles, and technology. We dwarf Russia in every facet. If the West doesn't fully supply Ukraine, then it's clearly a failure of Western leadership.


LGDB: Yeah, you're conflating our own military expanse (which is greater by orders of magnitude) with what we can reasonably expect Ukraine will be armed with even in a best case scenario. Literally no one is suggesting that the arms or supplies that the West will be providing will being to approach Russia's capabilities. Again, I want to be clear, to my knowledge no one is suggesting that even our ample military support is going to give the Ukrainians a reasonable chance to repel this invasion. It's far more likely if anything this is to help fuel a Ukrainian insurgency. And failure of leadership or not, the West will not be inflating Ukraine to anything in the neighborhood of 5th most powerful military (to give an arbitrary designation) which is what they'd need to have a prayer here.








"President" Jocko Willink: The Ukraine Situation - YouTube

This guy says otherwise. I'll listen to this man before I listen to you or your like-minded progressive cohorts.

My estimation is that with unlimited resources provided by the West, Ukraine cannot falter. To do anything less is a failure of the West's leadership, not the "will of the Ukrainian people" as you tried to lay on me.


LGDB: Yeah you understand that this is pretend, right? lol This is what Jocko WOULD do if we he was the leader of the United States. Supposedly. Now leaving aside that Jocko's expertise wasn't exactly in state craft; and leaving aside I'm not sure this WWE promo would be all that compelling to anyone at the Kremlin... did you catch the part about where Jocko was talking about sending three aircraft carriers, special operations, and infantry units, air support and so on? You understand this isn't what's actually going to happen, right? I think at best he's being aspiration here. You can argue all you like about whose failure it is, but the White House has been unequivocal about it. None of these things are on offer.



cheers,
---the late great Donald Blake




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