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Subj: Re: I wish I had your confidence about this.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 09:29:09 pm EDT (Viewed 146 times)
Reply Subj: Re: I wish I had your confidence about this.
Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2022 at 08:25:40 pm EDT (Viewed 152 times)
Quote:LGDB: You seemed to suggest it, yes. I'll leave it to others whether this mischaracterizes your position.
No, let's not leave it to others that have a poor track record. I understand that you try your best and so I'll explain.
You: "Meanwhile, much of the people that live in the south and the east of the Ukraine identify as ethnically Russian, primarily speak Russian, and generally show political support for Russophilic leaders. I think it might be a reasonable compromise to cede this territory to the Russians. [Along with reestablishing that series of buffer states between Russia and NATO like Finland, Ukraine, etc.] Especially when it's conceivable that many of those Ukrainians would prefer to be governed by Russia."
Me: "If the Ukrainians are unwilling to fight for their country despite the endless resources (armament and oil) the West is willing to provide, then perhaps there's not much we can do. But I'm assuming they're determined to continue fighting; and so long that this assumption is true, I don't support giving Putin/Russia an inch of Ukrainian soil."
You: "It seems in bad taste to believe that should the Ukrainians fail it was for lack of willingness on their part."
As you can see, my comment was addressing your input that there's possibly a sizable number of Ukrainians in the South and East who are sympathetic to Russia; and so my response was a hypothetical while making clear that my assumption was otherwise. Do I need to break it down further why you're wrong? Also, it would be nice if you apologized.
Quote:LGDB: What do you mean it's a chance you're willing to take? I don't think either one of us is in on the decision making here.
What a strange point you just made, like I did something taboo to message boards. Obviously, we're not the decision makers and we're speaking for ourselves. Are you thinking we're doing otherwise?
Quote:Regardless, what would make you think it would be reasonable to assume that high placed government or military officials who you can expect have expressed nothing but loyalty to Putin (and would likely be ideologically in agreement with him) would disobey him?
I already told you the general gist - I don't believe Russia has a culture where Putin is revered as a god and his people are willing to follow him into the gates of hell. That's why! Not even Hitler, who was able to control all propaganda and was revered as a god could prevent his people from trying to assassinate him. I just can't picture Russian soldiers, who've now been exposed to what Americans and the West are really like for the past 30 years, pushing nuclear buttons and starting Armageddon out of blind loyalty to a man who may not even be all that popular in Russia.
LGDB: Stupidity has nothing to do with it. It's whether or not they thought there was a credible threat to their power or way of life. And I didn't mean in the case of our financing the Ukrainian war effort. I meant should we begin down the road of direct military escalation. Like with for instance setting up a no fly zone in Ukraine. And do you have any articulatable reason to think they're bluffing? Again, this seems like a lot to stake on intuition.
Why would they think there's a credible threat if there's no invasion on their soil? That's what my intuition is based on: that there's no invasion to make them feel their "way of life" is threatened. You think it's me but I say it's you who's making the strange intuitions.
LGDB: Yeah, you're conflating our own military expanse (which is greater by orders of magnitude) with what we can reasonably expect Ukraine will be armed with even in a best case scenario. Literally no one is suggesting that the arms or supplies that the West will be providing will being to approach Russia's capabilities.
Literally Jocko suggested that very thing! Stop these asinine statements! You've already been corrected on this.
Quote:Again, I want to be clear, to my knowledge no one is suggesting that even our ample military support is going to give the Ukrainians a reasonable chance to repel this invasion. It's far more likely if anything this is to help fuel a Ukrainian insurgency. And failure of leadership or not, the West will not be inflating Ukraine to anything in the neighborhood of 5th most powerful military (to give an arbitrary designation) which is what they'd need to have a prayer here.
Jocko Willink is suggesting it.
Quote:LGDB: Yeah you understand that this is pretend, right? lol This is what Jocko WOULD do if we he was the leader of the United States. Supposedly.
Sigh. No shit! He's obviously not the president. But he was pretending about what he WOULD say, meaning it's his assessment of Ukraine's capability with the full support of the West. Which EXACTLY matches my position! Do you get it?
Quote:Now leaving aside that Jocko's expertise wasn't exactly in state craft; and leaving aside I'm not sure this WWE promo would be all that compelling to anyone at the Kremlin... did you catch the part about where Jocko was talking about sending three aircraft carriers, special operations, and infantry units, air support and so on? You understand this isn't what's actually going to happen, right? I think at best he's being aspiration here. You can argue all you like about whose failure it is, but the White House has been unequivocal about it. None of these things are on offer.
Way to switch the argument. You said nobody was saying what I'm saying - I corrected you. Now you're saying that there's no way we'd do what I / Jocko am / are saying, which is not the argument. The argument is that if we DID do what I / Jocko am / are saying, Ukraine would definitely win. And if Ukraine falls, it's Biden's failure.
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