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Post By
bd2999 
Moderator

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
In Reply To
Late Great Donald Blake 
Moderator

Member Since: Sat May 17, 2008
Posts: 7,566
Subj: Re: A Board Poll about the recent ascendency of the Democrats
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 at 10:48:06 am EDT (Viewed 133 times)
Reply Subj: A Board Poll about the recent ascendency of the Democrats
Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2022 at 10:18:16 am EDT (Viewed 154 times)



    Quote:
    So it really appears that the Democrats have the wind at their back for the mid terms. You can dismiss the polls all you like, but the recent earlier elections like with Alaska would seem to suggest that the Republicans have squandered what might have otherwise been a "red wave."


I think since Dobbs it was going to be less of a red wave than thought and it has only been downhill from there.


    Quote:
    Which of the following factors do you attribute to the current Democratic ascendency? Pick as many as you think are at play and order them (if multiple) from most to least significant in influence.



    Quote:

    A) Biden and the Dems being successful with their legislative and executive policy agenda (e.g. IRA, CHIPS, student debt forgiveness)


3


    Quote:

    B) the Dobbs decision by the SCOTUS to ban abortion.


1


    Quote:

    C) a general improvement in economic conditions (e.g. gas prices reducing, inflation slowing, etc.)


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    Quote:

    D) covid being less of a concern among the public



    Quote:

    E) Republican failure to create or communicate a political agenda that most Americans agree with


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    Quote:

    F) Trump's recent indictment scandal


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    Quote:

    G) MAGA Republicans grip on the GOP is alienating the general electorate


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    Quote:

    H) all of the above are bunk. The Dems ascendency going into the midterms is overblown or fake news.



Most folks have acted like COVID is over for a while so I think that is minimal. And having no real agenda did not hurt the GOP previously, as they can get by with culture war stuff mostly.

I do think the economy being good with job numbers and other indicators after Dobbs which energized the Dem base to one degree or another has been big. Then some Dem voters were brought more in with the accomplishments achieved, particularly with student loans and environmental things in addition to drug prices.

It is probably a group of them and I could see arguments about which was more important but in my mind the Dobbs decision turned the tide, even if the others have helped to one degree or another.

What impact it has on the midterms is hard to say. I know that there was also a special election in NY that was +1.5 Biden in 2020 but has been a good bell weather that showed the GOP ahead was won by the Democrat as well. Which is a good sign.

Most forecasts, potentially based on wrong polling, indicate the Dems likely pick up seats in the Senate but the House is an iffy proposition, although probably was not as bad in terms of losses as before.





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