I think both of your replies to this are close to spot on with exception that Hulk was already "hulkin out" from time he entered arena. Thor is much more of a warrior, and you are right that his powerset should give him the edge. The comics maybe much different as Hulks powers and abilities have grown greater over the years, Thors have been greatly reduced. Both their battles were hilights of movies for myself, I kind of liked they both had some what winners but really seemed to be draws.
The Hulk saw Thor as his friend, so do not think was going max effort, and was not being shown doing the madder stronger think yet.
Still think Thor would be able to deal with him, but has to cut loose all out...